CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2020 Aug 18 1237 UTC
:Product: documentation at https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.sidc.be_products_meu&d=DwICAg&c=ApwzowJNAKKw3xye91w7BE1XMRKi2LN9kiMk5Csz9Zk&r=fFo6hbFg3H50zwxL1TViQPD9y90ZwXvvvrVlQJzB4u0&m=KFA43_81eds0Ztv9aDopHA7Ej4-7zvEq6ddv9teYcW8&s=6a8Ypg97v78-QVWgH2TwD5Aqy57_El3LGhkJasVt1nE&e=
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 00818
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Aug 2020, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Aug 2020 until 20 Aug 2020)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Aug 2020  10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Aug 2020  10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2020  10CM FLUX: 071 / AP: 014
COMMENT: The solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. The N0AA-AR
2771 is still on the disk. The X-ray flux was at A-class level and the
solar activity is expected to remain low.

The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that took place on Aug 16th 18:00UT has  a
small chance of a glancing blow from late Aug 19th.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past
24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux fluctuated between nominal and
moderate levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain nominal to
moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed near Earth varied between 280 and 340km/s (DSCOVR).
The polarity of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly
oriented away the Sun (phi angle in the positive sector). Bz fluctuated
between -6 and +5 nT. The magnitude of the magnetic field varied between 1
and 7 nT. A negative coronal hole crossed the central meridian on August
17th. An enhancement could be expected on Aug 20th, possibly combined with
any effects from the CME. For the first part of the next 24 hours, the
solar wind speed is expected to remain low, while by the end of Aug 19th to
be enhanced as a response to the influence of the CME.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet. The values registered for the past
24 hours were 0-2 for K Dourbes and NOAA Kp. Quiet geomagnetic conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours.
The solar wind speed near Earth varied between 280 and 340km/s (DSCOVR).
The polarity of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly
oriented away the Sun (phi angle in the positive sector). Bz fluctuated
between -6 and +5 nT. The magnitude of the magnetic field varied between 1
and 7 nT. A negative Coronal hole crossed the central meridian on August
17th. An enhancement could be expected on Aug 20th, possibly combined with
any effects from the CME. For the next 24 hours the solar wind speed is
expected to remain low for the beginnig of that time period, while by the
end of Aug 19th to be enhanced as a response to the influence of the CME.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 012, BASED ON 21 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Aug 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 071
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 008
AK WINGST              : 004
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 30 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END

BT

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